With elections set for March 2013, safety questions arise for those considering an African safari. The last elections in December 2007 resulted in between 800 and 1,500 Kenyans being savagely murdered and between 180,000 and 250,000 displaced (figures vary according to different sources). Although the violence was inter-tribal, it was horrific and severely damaged the tourism industry. So as we get closer to the next election, the question is “Will it happen again?” This article examines recent events in Kenya and the views of various parties on the situation. This article will not advise you whether to travel to Kenya in March or not; my intention is to illustrate the situation so that you can make an informed decision.

Kenya has always had conflict around elections, but it has usually been in small pockets across the country. The post-election violence in 2007-8 was the first time it broke out across the country. Those held responsible for inciting the violence are currently indicted before the International Criminal Court (ICC), including presidential candidate Uhuru Kenyatta. It seems like a strange situation that a man accused of crimes against humanity can run for the presidency! However, the other leading candidate, Raila Odinga, spent most of the 1980s in jail for his involvement in an attempted coup, and was the one who criticized the 2007 election results, which potentially sparked the violence.

There are very few Kenyans who want to see a repeat of such violence and the Kenyan security agencies assure us that they are doing everything in their power to prevent it. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) does not believe that a situation like 2008 will be repeated. Similarly, Andrew Limo, training coordinator for the Independent Electoral and Boundary Commission (IEBC), says they have taken action to ensure that Kenyans are protected during the elections and that they run smoothly.

Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International and the Kenya Red Cross are less optimistic. Some incidents this year have led these non-governmental organizations (NGOs) to be skeptical of peaceful elections.

In early July, three musicians were arrested and charged with inciting violence through their music. If convicted, they could face up to three years in jail. Inciting violence through music, speech, or other means has become a highly sensitive issue since the 2008 violence, and indeed a criminal offence. Joshua Arap Sang, who was due to stand trial before the ICC for crimes against humanity, was a radio executive who allegedly incited violence in 2008 through coded messages on the radio.

The IEBC’s Limo has advised journalists to be on the front lines of preaching peace by reporting fairly. “Journalists, you have an important role to play in making sure that the general election is conducted in a peaceful manner by reporting fairly and objectively, without siding with any individual or group, because our job is to inform Kenya accurately.” . He also said that the scribes should focus on reporting on issues that will unite Kenyans.

But despite most Kenyans saying they don’t want a repeat of the violence, stories like the one that emerged in late August of 52 people (mostly women and children) killed in the Tana River coastal region put challenge that feeling. On August 22, 31 women, 11 children and six men (and 60 cows) were killed with pangas (machetes). On September 10, another 39 were killed in a retaliatory attack. The conflict is between the Pokomo and Orma tribes, triggered by a fight over pasture. Resource scarcity and food scarcity are the main causes of the conflict in Kenya. It is the same motivation that drives Kenyans to rob tourists: they are hungry and they have children to feed. The fight for arable land and water is what fueled those killings in Tana Delta in a conflict between farmers and cattle herders.

However, the riots in Mombasa on August 27 were not due to a lack of resources, but rather a religious conflict, which does not bode well for electoral security. Analysts from international NGOs suggest this is a sign that worse is yet to come, although the Kenyan government appears to be working quickly to crack down on the problems, charging 24 people on August 29. Muslims protested the assassination of the cleric Rogo, destroying churches, private property, and government facilities. Rogo was a terrorist suspect who preached jihad and was a divisive figure even within Islamic circles, but who had strong militant support throughout the coastal region.

As we consider whether violence will flare again in March, one thing to remember is that in Kenya, power is worth fighting for. Corruption abounds at all levels of public service, which means it’s possible to become very rich if your friend is the president. The best jobs tend to go to members of the tribe. That is why it is very important to make sure that the man on top is from his tribe, and desperate people will believe that their situation will improve if their tribesman is in power.

Fiona Herring, a Refugee Studies graduate student at the University of East London, suggests that the violence at election time will likely be limited to certain areas, specifically Nakuru, Naivasha, Eldoret, Mombasa and Kibera. However, it may be more widespread in April when the ICC trial will take place, especially if Kenyatta wins the election.

But in the post-election violence of 2008, even white Kenyans were left largely alone and it was certainly never aimed at tourists. The impact on the tourism industry was, however, to say. Since tourism is Kenya’s main industry, tourists are unlikely to become the target of any electoral violence as it would be very damaging to the economy. Most of the crimes against tourists are opportunistic, so it is doubtful that they will increase with any electoral conflict. However, if you are on safari, be aware that the ethnicity of your driver may affect your movement in the event of a conflict. But then again, even Kenyans don’t want to see election violence, much less get caught up in it.