"The big bust ahead" – Book review

This concise description of the analysis of demographics and correlation with markets invariably leads to the same conclusion as the author. Daniel A. Arnold does not beat around the bush as he explains that we are in or near the next great economic depression. Recent events have shaken consumer confidence, but after reading this book, you will be sure that the greatest depression of all time is just around the corner.

Mr. Arnold expertly lays out the facts and correlates past recessions and depressions with a demographic he calls the big spenders, a 45- to 54-year-old underdemographic. The charts and graphs are expertly used to illustrate each demographic correlation with the history of the stock market. At the end of the book, the conclusion is irrefutable. Economic conditions are dictated primarily by population distribution, and as the 100,000,000 baby boomers approach retirement and reduce their spending, the economy will also slow down. “The boomers as a group are close in size to the entire population of Japan, all men, women and children! Think about it. Try to think of the magnitude of this.” The analysis is sharp, clear and concise. The bottom line is a harsh understanding of an economic inevitability, a longer and deeper depression than has ever occurred in our history is immanent.

The book is based on demographic data collected in the Vorago database and historical stock market data. If you are concerned about your financial future, this is a must read.

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