The assembly elections are only two days away and the parties are keeping their finger on who will win the prestigious Telangana assembly elections.
It is December 2018. Some eight months earlier there was an aura of invincibility cultivated by the ruling party by dividing the opposition parties that left the party without strong opposition. On the other hand, the populist measures implemented by the ruling party covered a large part of society that made an act of consolidation. In the middle, what changed the fate of the opposition? Of course, the old scenarios changed and new scenarios emerged to the chagrin of the ruling party.
Congress has regained lost ground
The first and main concern for the ruling party is the recovery of Congress from the anti-incumbent state that it suffered in the 2014 assembly and parliament elections. There was a wave against Congress in 2014, which was left without a rudder. , no leader after the fork. Out of that nowhere state, a new leader emerged from Reddy’s powerful community, Uttam Kumar Reddy, who galvanized the party by pushing aside various centers of power with the blessings of the party’s high command, Rahul Gandhi.
In the 2014 assembly elections, when the state of Telangana was formed, and TRS won the mandate with 33% of the votes in Vidhan Soudha, the Congressional count was 24% and the TDP vote percentage was 14%. A simple calculation of 24 + 14 = 38% more than TRS. If it is added with the support of other parties like CPI or TRS breakaway group Kodandaram, there is a chance that the share will reach 40%. But wait. Still, we cannot be sure unless and until the case of the anti-incumbency factor is thoroughly verified or what constitutes the oscillation factor. It is in this area that we need to see.
Checking the anti-incumbency factor
Before we get into the anti-concern factor, let’s take a look at TRS’s main constituency. The ruling party firmly has the Velama community in its fold. Part of the Reddy community and a large part of BC, Muslims, Christians form their base of support.
Any brand will fail if the brand promise is not fulfilled. One of the flagship programs is the two-bedroom houses for ordinary people. In fact, the government wanted to build 3.5 lakh houses in the first phase with the help of Rs 10,000 crore from the center. But according to a report from ToI, the project shows no signs of progress as of the end of 2015.
Any other populist program like subsidized rice, subsidized power to farmers, refund of fees to students, subsidized lunch was successfully implemented by other parties like AIADMK, Congress or AAP in the respective states where they had power. Only a housing scheme can act as a brand differentiator, and in that same area, KCR failed. Here, we need to remember one thing; it is the aspiration of the middle class that the party must take care of. Offering food safety is a proven idea that has its appeal among workers who, apart from them, and others, opt for food brought from home or go to mess with a healthy diet. If you look at who comes to eat the subsidized lunch, it shows that the lower strata of society in the queue and those with somewhat better incomes choose not to. The interpretation is clear; a five rupee lunch will continue even if another party is ruling.
Now let’s check the status of the fee refund. According to a report on January 4, 2017, several academics and political party leaders criticized the government for its hesitancy to settle the refund of the fee owed. This prompted the president of (TJAC), M Kodandaram, to warn the government. Now that Prof. Kodanadaram in Mahkutami carrying the message and being TJAC’s darling, the opinion of the students, the opinion of the parents may lean in favor of the Congress that was giving a safe deal. , The anti-incumbent factor against the government on the part of students acting as first-time voters who choose to change government.
Increased insecurity between companies and workers
Demonetization and the GST have reduced the income of small-scale traders. Although many are critical of the congressional regime, people have the feeling that the old state was better where there was less interference with its financial independence. A vast majority of Muslim merchants feel insecure in a cashless society, and are fine with cash transactions where banks have little power to eat their wealth during each transaction. The same mindset applies to small-scale traders who feel that the old system was better for business. These segments are very likely to vote for the alliance if the candidate has better credentials. In the case of Mahakutami, where TDP is a major player, the business community has a trusted partner, so it will vote for him, depending on the credibility of the candidate projected by the party.
Women are the ones who lost income during demonetization. When the price of cooking gas rises, they feel insecure. Lower income groups are outraged and seek a chance for revenge. It’s only natural that women from lower-income families flock to vote for the Congressional alliance to teach BJP a lesson.
TRS although claiming to be anti-Congress and anti BJP, their movements seemed to have an understanding with the BJP at the center. First, the party promises to eliminate Congress, not the BJP. When the heads of opposition parties find it difficult to meet with the Prime Minister, the KCR meets with the Prime Minister at ease. All of this raised suspicions in the minds of the thinking people.
In the game changer where communities come together to overthrow TRS
What happened after the formation of the Telangana state is the removal of the powerful Reddy community from center stage. For decades together, they ruled AP. The community of the KCR Velama caste is 3% in AP, while Kammas has 4.8% and Reddys 6.5%. In the last elections, part of these communities voted for TRS which brought the party to power. Now imagine a scenario in which a combined Congressional and TDP rally takes place in the district. Rahul’s rallies drew a large gathering that clearly establishes that there is strong negative opinion against the government. And during the combined TDP and Congress rallies, there is strong anti-government sentiment in people’s gestures. What will happen is the swing factor where the majority of Reddys and Kammas will solidify to vote for Mahakutami. Without a doubt, the percentage of votes of the Mahakutami will increase.
The surest way to say that TRS will be phased out is to bring Dalits into the alliance. The SCs included 20% and the STs included 10% in Telangana (Source quora). The TRS boss promised that Dailit would be the first CM once Telangana is formed. But that promise was not kept.
Then after the party came to power, Rohit Vemula, who is said to be Dalit, committed suicide, sparking Dalit uprisings. But the ruling party did little to restore trust among the Dalits. After TRS took power in 2014, the CPM-affiliated Federation of Intercaste Marriages found 19 incidents of caste murder in Telangana. BJP has attracted large numbers of Dalits to the party. But step by step part of the Dalits lost faith in the party and began to switch preferentially to the BSP or the Congress. These are some of the reasons for a swing factor in favor of Reddys, Kammas, part of the disenchanted OBCs in the KCR regime.
The Modi effect will diminish the appeal of TRS among Hindus
In the first week of December 2018, Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a fervent call to defeat TRS. Modi’s frontal attack has the power to increase the percentage of votes among Hindu voters. Guess, at whose expense. In the 2014 assembly elections, KCR rode an anti-incumbent wave or a Modi wave that toppled Congress. Now, that anti-concern does not exist at the same level. A new government arrived in Hyderabad, and when it came to corruption, there was not much difference. Furthermore, the 12% reserve offered to Muslims by the KCR regime will backfire as Hindus honorably offended will vote for BJP at the expense of TRS. In this process, the beneficiary will be Congress.
Muslims had been allies of Congress for decades and increased their power and power with their support. Ordinary Muslims will find it easy if MIM agrees with Congress. Instead, if the leadership goes to TRS, which is widely seen as soft on the BJP, some of the Muslims will consider it safe to join Congress. Even political experts accept that Muslims in the villages will vote for Congress and in the city the majority of Muslims will vote for TRS. Even among urban Muslims, many freethinking Muslims will elect to Congress simply for security reasons and to send a strong message to the BJP that the strategy of dividing the opposition will not succeed. In the long term, there are chances that MIM will lose its credibility as Ali Mian or Delhi Imam by supporting a Samajwadi or Janata Dal party that helped the BJP come to power.
How did the odds stack against the ruling party?
It is a fact that KCR is smart and a political savvy. But at the same time, we can see one thing: if everyone unites against the smart actor, things will be difficult. Abhimanyu in the Mahabharata was the victim of being mocked by united rivals. Napoleon was very efficient in outwitting his enemies. Eventually, he was harassed by the mocked and defeated in the Battle of Nations. In the same way, Hitler perished.
Similarly, the smart KCR will also be defeated by the opposition’s combined attack. KCR could have won if it had made a tacit electoral understanding like playing weak candidates and the BJP helping the ruling party come to power. In his absence, he is likely to lose the election for sure.
